Tag Archives: debt

State Tax Reform: A South Australian Perspective

In 2014, I was part of an unusual campaign – to call for increases in state taxes. The SACOSS “Without Taxes, Vital Services Disappear” campaign was a response to the social service sector constantly being told that there was no money to fund the various services and policies to address poverty and disadvantage. This was true in that budgets were in deficit, so the state government was already spending more money than it was getting in through taxes, grants and other income.

Ten years on, the situation has changed. The last state budget brought in an operating surplus for 2023-24 and forecast surpluses across the forward estimates. In this sense, there is money to expand expenditure on addressing poverty and disadvantage, so the issue would seem to be political priority rather than needing to raise taxes and revenue. However, the tax questions remain crucial because, despite the budget surpluses, state debt is increasing and the interest payments on that debt are undermining the state budget.

Opportunity Cost

As SACOSS noted in its analysis of the last state budget, the South Australian government will spend more on interest payments on debt than it will on the Department of Human Services – the department responsible for supporting the most disadvantaged South Australians. The graph below shows the increase interest payments, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of state expenditure.

Graph showing state budget interest expenses going from under 2.25% of state expenditure in 2021-22 to a projected 6.7% in 2027-28.
Source: SA State Budget Papers

The interest payments are growing because of a combination of higher interest rates, and increasing state debt driven by infrastructure spending. Conventional economics would suggest that going in to debt to fund infrastructure is not a problem, and the government argues that the debt is not a problem as the debt-revenue ratio is under control. However, this has always struck me as an apples and oranges comparison. It says little about the capacity to repay the debt or the impact of the debt on the government.

The more important ratio is the cost of debt servicing to total revenue. The red line in the graph above shows that this is increasing as interest rates account for more of the state budget. This inevitably has an opportunity cost as that money is not available to be spent on government services.

This is why the level of debt and deficit matters – not because it shows mismanagement or over-spending, or a need for austerity, but because it constrains the operations of government and their ability to support citizens.

And underlying this is a concern about equality. As I have noted previously, governments have a choice in financing their activity as they can tax or to borrow from those with surplus cash. Taxation represents a flow from those with resources to the common good, whereas borrowing creates a flow from the common treasury to those with capital resources to loan money.

This is not to say that there should never be state debt, but simply to recognise that it comes at a cost – an opportunity cost and a cost to equality. But in light of the rapidly increasing impact on the state budget, there is a fair argument now that we need to raise more state revenue.

Tax Reform Opportunity?

Unfortunately, the record for tax reform in South Australia, at least in terms of increasing taxes or introducing new taxes, is not promising.

The last time there was a broad public review of SA state taxes was in 2015, when the then Labor government released a discussion paper canvassing a range of reform options. The highest profile reform, a proposal to replace conveyance duties with a broad-based property tax – including on owner-occupied housing, was met with a media outcry about a “tax on the family home” (which ignored the fact that conveyance duties are also a tax on the family home). The proposal was ruled out in a matter of days – even before the formal consultation process closed.

Overall, despite the Treasurer publicly welcoming the SACOSS submission (which proposed raising revenue), the 2015 review resulted in the abolition of a range of taxes and decreases in other taxes totalling some $670m in lost revenue over four years to 2018-19 – all in the name of improving the business environment.

Outside of the 2015 review, the record is no more encouraging:

Panel of 8 men speaking at a forum organised by SA Best to oppose tax reform to closing avoidance loophole in land tax aggregation.
Adelaide’s “men of property” at a forum opposing
closing loopholes in land tax aggregation, August 2019.

Of course, over the years there have been changes to rates and thresholds of existing taxes, but these are generally in the direction of tax “relief” rather than revenue raising.

There are two notable exceptions where new revenue-raising taxes have been introduced over the last 20 years. There was the 2017 introduction of the Foreign Ownership Surcharge – a 7% extra stamp duty for foreign owners purchasing real estate, and the point of consumption wagering tax introduced in the 2016-17 state budget. The former had been explicitly rejected in the government’s response to the State Tax Review a year earlier, while the later was flagged but not immediately implemented.

These two examples are telling – not so much because they show that new revenue measures are possible, but because they show the importance of the politics. By definition, the Foreign Ownership Surcharge had no resident vested interests opposed (because they were overseas), while the point-of-consumption wagering tax came at a time when the sports betting industry’s peak body and political lobby was in disarray (and the big companies did not want to risk their own brands in defending registration in tax havens).

Not exactly repeatable examples as a basis for a campaign strategy or a hope of reform.

A similar story could probably be told at the federal level from the experience of mining super-profits taxes, Labor’s 2019 mild capital gains and negative gearing reforms, and more generally in relation to the Henry Tax Review – comprehensive and steeped in Treasury’s market logic and legitimacy, but still largely gathering dust.

Conclusion

The reality is that it is always much easier to oppose a new tax than to pass one. A new or increased tax creates a vested interest in opposition, and they can always find or invent a deserving case study for whom the tax is unfair, or tell us how the tax will cripple the economy. By contrast, the vested interests who will benefit from the tax (the general public who will benefit from government revenue and spending) are too amorphous or too far removed from the specific proposal too mobilise in support.

I think the point of the story above is not to abandon all hope of tax reform and of raising sufficient revenue to fund vital services, but rather to see it as a political exercise rather than a policy one. It will require a long-term shift in public thinking and a mobilisation of political power, not simply a well-researched policy or a polite proposal. It will require political resources to oppose the vested interests, and an appropriate vehicle to drive the change.

In that sense, tax reform is both a part of a bigger project of social democratic renewal and dependent on that project.

Debt, Interest Payments and Choices: A Surprise in the SA State Budget

As we make our way through the first month of a new financial year, political economic debates are dominated by inflation, interest rates and “full employment”. But the discussion of interest rates is generally focused on their impact on inflation at the macro-level, and on mortgages and cost of living at the micro-level. The impact of interest payments on government budgets is usually noted in budget night commentary on the deficit/surplus scorecard, but promptly forgotten for the rest of the year.

However, an unusual occurrence (at least in recent times) in the South Australian state budget should serve to illustrate why interest rates matter to government and to the community. In 2023-24 the amount of government expenditure going to servicing state debt ($1,254m) will eclipse the budget for the Department of Human Services (DHS) ($1,148m). This difference grows over the forward estimates with the DHS budget subject to real cuts (low indexation and older operational savings) while interest payments increase substantially. By 2026-27, interest payments are predicted to be $1,684m, by comparison with a DHS budget of just $1,233m.

Column graph comparing SA State Budget expenditure showing interest payments increasing from 2022-23 to 2026, while DHS expenditure remains stable.

In practice, this means that we are spending more on debt repayments than we are on the Department that is the primary provider of support services for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged people in our state. That feels wrong – but apart from the shock value, does it really matter, or it is just a statistical coincidence with no budget or social impact?

A Debt Problem?

As I pointed out in SACOSS’ post-budget analysis, government debt and deficits are not necessarily a problem – and may represent important economic stimulus or long-term investment. And there is no suggestion that this level of debt in unsustainable, although the budget papers show that a 1 percent point increase interest rates in 2023-24 would equate to an extra $203m in service payments. That would obviously be a significant imposition on the budget, but even with the debt-to-income ratio rising, the government can clearly still maintain payments. However, if debt is unchecked or interest rates continue to rise, at some point interest payments either become unsustainable, or more likely, a significant constraint on budget spending in other areas.

In that sense, the comparison of interest payments and the DHS budget is important because it reminds us of the potential impact and opportunity cost of state debt. I am not suggesting that if we were not paying that money in interest, we would be spending it on human services. That would be wishful thinking! However, all government spending has distributional impacts, and interest payments are no different. The comparison with DHS expenditure simply serves to focus the interest payment discussion on inequality.

Debt, Interest Payments and Inequality

In providing concessions and emergency supports to those on low incomes, and funding charities to provide a range of other supports, the Department of Human Services functions to transfer money and resources from the budget to those most in need. By contrast, interest payments are a transfer from the budget to government bond holders – who, by definition, are those with excess cash to afford to lend money to the government (by buying bonds).

As Piketty has pointed out, (and [as ever] some of the concerns here come from my reading of his work) it is far more advantageous to those with capital to have public deficits and receive interest on their money than to have that capital taxed to balance the budget (Capital in the Twenty-first Century, p.130). So, in creating government debt we have already chosen to favour those with capital by borrowing rather than taxing their money and creating an ongoing flow to rather than from that capital.

Seen in this light, the contrast between the DHS budget and the amount going to debt servicing is an indicator of choices about government priorities – the choice to provide relatively less to the poorest in society (via government expenditure) than to those who are better off (via taxes foregone and interest paid out).

Caveats

Of course, as with everything in economics, it is not as simple as that. The initial use of borrowed capital may be used for things which support those on low incomes, and inflation may quite separately have a counter-balancing impact by undermining the real value of bonds and the interest payable on them. Further, bond-holders may not be South Australian residents and may therefore be outside the tax ambit of the state government. In that sense the taxing v borrowing from capital argument above is not about individual bondholders. Rather it is illustrative of the options of government in general and operates at the level of class: that is, the state government has options to tax local capital rather than borrow from capital in a national or global market.

To the extent that we can look at individual bondholders, it is also worth noting that, as Piketty points out, they are no longer necessarily the wealthiest people in society (as the super-rich can invest more lucratively elsewhere). ABS wealth statistics do not record bonds as a separate category, so it is hard to confirm this. However, it is clear that the low-inflation era of the first years of this century made bonds a safe investment for middle class superannuation and investment funds, so when we talk about bondholders it is likely we are talking about middle and above-average income earners (often via superannuation or investment trusts). In that sense, the DHS/interest payment comparison is not so much about rich vs poor, but about a form of middle-class welfare instead of a transfer to those in most need of the supports that a DHS might offer them.

Finally, there is another (non-taxation) route to balancing the budget and avoiding interest flows to capital owners. That is by cutting expenditure. However, cuts to expenditure (and therefore to services) usually impact disproportionately on the poorest people. Those with the fewest economic resources are likely to be most reliant on support services and have limited or no alternative options, so expenditure cuts usually also impact most on the poor. Further, it is notable that in this SA budget, government debt continues to increase even with operational surpluses from 2023-24 onwards, so balancing the budget is not simply done by cutting expenditure. However, there is little doubt that when government services are cut (the “austerity approach”) this exacerbates inequality, so if fairness or equality is a consideration in balancing the budget, we must ultimately return to revenue issues – and our preference for borrowing rather than taxing capital.

Why Debt and Interest Payments Matter

Budget deficits and surpluses matter, but not for the reasons often touted in economic commentary (“responsible government”, “living within our means”). They matter because they determine the level of debt, which in turn, within any given interest rate regime and revenue base, impacts on the money available to spend on services. And as interest rates increase, so too does the cost of servicing government debt. The choices made to borrow rather than tax capital increasingly manifest in a distribution of government revenue to the middle and upper middle classes rather than to those on the lowest incomes who would benefit most from government service provision.

The fact that the SA state government interest payments now eclipse spending on the Department of Human Services should make us think about government priorities and the need for a stronger tax base.