With Australia’s new industrial relations law now through the federal parliament, there is talk of increased wages, or at least a hope that real wage increases will be possible with workers having better bargaining tools to try to secure them. After years of wage stagnation, obviously any increase in wage levels is welcome, but much of the public debate has focused on the need for wage increases to help households, especially low-income households, with increased cost of living. But increasing wages is also fundamentally important to macroeconomic income flows and equality.
In his landmark Captial in the Twentieth Century, Thomas Piketty noted that in many western countries inequality was increasing to levels unprecedented since the turn of the last century because the growth of capital incomes was outstripping wage incomes. Capital incomes are concentrated at the high end of income distribution, so the relative share of society’s income going to capital and to labour was a crucial determinant of inequality.
However, in a really interesting exchange after the release of Piketty’s book, political economist Anwar Shaikh argues that Piketty’s work focuses largely on the final distribution of income, but a far more nuanced understanding of inequality could be gained by tracing the primary, secondary and tertiary income flows which lead into that final distribution.
Shaikh argues that in a capitalist economy, production is based on the harnessing of labour power to produce new value from which capital can make a profit. Accordingly, the primary income distribution is that between labour and capital in the production process. At the macro level this primary distribution is captured in the structure of the national accounts where the income side of Gross Domestic Product is divided into compensation of employees (labour income) and gross operating surplus (capital income). In June 2022, labour received 44% of GDP, and the historically low labour share was one of the driving forces of the government’s Future Work Summit and the push industrial relation changes (see for instance the ACTU Job Summit Paper: An Economy that Works for People).
However, this primary distribution does not tell us the full story because from this primary distribution there are secondary distributions. Wages (compensation of employees) is split between taxes and disposable “take-home” income – an important distribution as progressive taxation is a significant factor in equalising take home wages from what is a much more unequal original distribution between wage earners. But gross operating surplus is also split into rents, royalties, profits, interest and taxes. These distributions are the property claims of different types of capital on the surplus income. The relative amounts of the secondary flows between these types of capital reflect the structure of production and the balance of class power within capitalism – so that, for instance, it has been suggested that finance capital has claimed most of the gains of neoliberal economic growth over the last 20 years.
Finally, there is the tertiary distribution which is redistribution of the taxes (taken in the secondary distribution) to households through transfer payments and to capital via subsidies and industry support. This is important because these social security transfers are the most visible face of “redistribution” and efforts to over-come inequality (e.g. campaigns to increase income support payments, or to provide public services). However, as we will see below, it is also the smallest of the distributions. While interventions in this space are necessary – especially for those outside of the circuits of capital and production income – they are also necessarily limited as the size of the tertiary flow is inevitably determined by the primary and secondary income flows.
The focus on primary, secondary and tertiary income flows arises out of classical and Marxian political economy, but they are difficult to quantify because our national accounts are based on Keynesian and neoclassical principles. Accordingly, the accounts do not necessarily record these flows. However, some data is available and is captured in the table below.
Income Distributions, Australia, June Quarter 2022
Source ABS, Australian National Accounts, June Quarter 2022, Tables 7, 22, 23.
These numbers are important because they show the magnitude of the different income flows and the potential impact of changes in them. For instance, a 2 percentage point increase in the labour share of the economy (compensation of employees), which would return labour to the levels of twenty years ago, equates to a $12bn or 4.5% increase in total wages for the quarter. By contrast, even a 10% increase in social security payments (personal benefit transfers), would only see a $3.6bn redistribution of income.
Again, this is not to say that arguments for social security increases are unimportant, but it does emphasise the importance of industrial contestation over the primary income distribution. Or put another way, it emphasises the importance of class (income flows based on relationship to the means of production) to understanding inequality.
A similar argument could be made around gender. Applying the proportion of the total wage pool noted in a previous post to the above national accounts data, a 2 percentage point increase in the female wage share would equate to a $5.3bn (5.1%) increase in women’s wages in the quarter. Again, that is more than the total of social security transfers (which also disproportionately go to women). Arguably then, closing the gender pay gap or increasing women’s labour force participation is a more direct route to gender equality than social security payments – albeit with application to different women.
Obviously these class and gender arguments reprise my previous arguments about the importance of a structural approach to addressing inequality, but they may be particularly important as the labour movement goes forward with the campaigns under the new industrial relation system.