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An Open Letter to MMT Followers

I find the need to pen this open letter in (hopefully) supportive criticism after attending one-too-many workshops on economics-related topics where a supporter of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) takes the floor to “explain” (at length and often out of context) that all the social goods we want can be afforded because the government can print/create money.

In writing this, I am not addressing the MMT academics and thought-leaders whose political values I probably share and whose knowledge of economics exceeds mine. Indeed, in part, I write because I think this work is being undermined by some MMT followers.

As I listened at the most recent workshop to the MTT-for-beginners lines I was reminded of my early days of politics where Trotskyists would intervene at every meeting to tell us that the problem was capitalism and could only be solved by revolution (oh, and “do you want to buy our newspaper?”). They appeared not really interested in the issue or immediate problem being discussed. Their main intent appeared to be getting converts to the cause (and selling newspapers).

The content and values of MMT are very different, but at times the behaviour – or at least the vibe – appears eerily familiar. My concern here is heightened by my long frustration with “panacea economics” – which I defined previously as proposing a particular idea as a simple and singular answer to fundamental structural issues. I hate to see MMT, with its detailed analysis and rich post-Keynesian background, presented in this way. Moreover, as I have found in conversations with workshop/audience members after several of these occasions, the MMT intervention is a turn-off which alienates other activists.

Getting Better Informed

The reality is that political economy is complex. I could read Stephen Hawking’s A Brief History of Time, but would not feel confident in publicly arguing astrophysics. Similarly, reading Stephanie Kelton’s The Deficit Myth is not enough to make me an expert on MMT or economics. Both books are great, with much bigger theories simplified for public consumption, but that is also a limitation. For instance, Kelton’s book does not explain or justify many of the macroeconomic relations and assumptions behind the theory – because that is not its point. Similarly, (in my reading) Kelton’s book has no theory of class, power or social change – although I am less clear whether that is because it was just beyond scope, or because MMT has no such theory. Anyway, Kelton’s intro book made me want to dig deeper – not just more MMT, but also critiques from the left and right.

I read a range of critiques from both the right and the left.[1] Some criticisms were lame caricatures of MMT or simply name-calling rather than analysis. However, what emerged in the more serious arguments were pretty grave doubts about the MMT/Chartalist history of money (the state preceding and creating money), some complex theoretical differences around the nature of money, the scope of aggregate demand in stimulating the economy, the role of the state in economic management, and (as I argued in my previous post) what constitutes full employment and whether it is possible.

I am not sure how much the followers of MMT understand these arguments or accept the MMT position on these issues. And maybe a knowledge of academic nuances doesn’t matter, although I am always wary of unexamined political/theoretical assumptions. More broadly, it is always a difficult balance between crediting expert over amateur knowledge (think climate change or vaccines) and not wanting to bar people from public debate because they are not academic experts in a field.

What is Wrong with the MMT Presentation?

Beyond the theoretical differences above, what was of particular interest in my reading was that many of the critiques on both the left and right agree with MMT’s description of how money is made, and the ability of currency-issuing governments to create money. MMT’s big trick is neither new nor unrecognised – but the use and implications of that trick are disputed. And that makes the issues complicated.

The table below is an attempt to summarise a few of the key simplistic MMT claims put forward at the various meetings I am referring to, and why I think they are problematic.

MMT – Simplistic ClaimWhat it sounds like at a community meetingWhy it is more complicated
When governments can issue currency, they can never run out of money.I know this thing about the economy that most economists, central bankers and governments all around the world don’t!The government can issue money, but can it control its value – or other economic variables which make that meaningful? And the MMT argument does not apply to Australian state governments.
Since the government creates money, and taxes it back later, we don’t need taxes to pay for services.We don’t need to pay taxes – hooray!If you need taxes to stop the inflationary impact of issuing money, then you really do need taxes if you are going to pay for services. It is just done in a different order. And as Kelton (and others) note, taxes are needed for other reasons – like redistribution of wealth.
Since we don’t need taxes to pay for services and governments can never run out of money, we can always afford to fund cultural, environmental and social programs.Problems of power and prioritising expenditure don’t matter because there is no scarcity problem and there is money for everything.(As MMT argues) there is a constraint in the full employment threshold, so the extra MMT money we are talking about is only the amount of government expenditure that would take us to full employment (if possible). After that, it is inflation or not funding services.
The government’s debt is simply the community’s surplus – no problem!Instead of taxing the rich, we are going to borrow money from them and create a revenue stream for them.Following Piketty: government debt (bonds) are owned by one sector of the community – the rich – while the interest paid constrains government expenditure on the services to the community more broadly.
Governments usually issue money as debt through the central bank, but they don’t have to. They can change the current institutional arrangements of how we issue money. MMT is right, the system can be changed (so the critique that MMT does not describe how the system works misses the point) . But issuing money as bonds and debt rather than as cash is seen (in theory) as a safeguard because, as Shaikh notes, many governments with the power to issue fiat money have ended up with hyperinflation. So change is possible, but is not without risk.
A Jobs Guarantee is a way to enact social programs, and it acts as an automatic stabiliser for the economy.A Job Guarantee is:
1. A brilliant panacea
OR
2. Just another doomed employment program
OR
3. A contradiction.
There are practical challenges in implementation, and a problematic history of political capture and mixed results. But in theory, is the JG primarily an economic stabiliser (which expands/contracts with economic changes) or a social program which provides jobs and services which would not otherwise be provided? If the former, the social programs disappear in the boom times, and if the later, the JG may not fulfill its stabilising function.

Conclusion

The point here is not what is right and wrong. There are certainly MMT arguments to address some of the complexities here, but there are also strong well-informed critiques from people who share similar values. In the end, much depends on the macroeconomic/philosophical framework and assumptions used. And this is why the simple assertion of MMT “facts” often does not carry much weight. Indeed, such assertions are likely to alienate rather than convince or encourage the audience – especially when people in the room have interrogated their own frameworks and/or have an understanding of heterodox economics.

My final plea to MMT followers is to keep advocating for state economic intervention, for investment in the things that make for a better society, and especially in support of unemployed and disadvantaged people. But don’t make the mistakes of Marxists of the past who tied all political change to a particular theory.


[1]              From the far right, there is this from the Centre for Independent Studies, and this from the Mises Institute. From the left there was a mix of lame and serious political economy critique from Booth, a broad consideration of assumptions and outcomes from Shaikh, plus an ill-tempered but interesting “debate” between MMT guru Bill Mitchell (blogs 1 and 2)and Marxist economist Michael Roberts (blog, reply to Mitchell).

Doughnuts: Utopian and Scientific

I delayed reading Kate Raworth’s 2017 book, Doughnut Economics for too long. I have often heard it cited as a foundation of a new sustainable economics, but over the years I have been disappointed by too many books and talks with similar promises. Most are delivered with a zealous belief that economic theory has never thought of the issue of concern and is blissfully ignorant of some key truth. And they often end up in “panacea economics”: if we just used different economic measures/counted unpaid work/valued caring or the environment/controlled bank credit/used alternative currencies/introduced this or that tax/etc, we would solve our economic problems.

There is nothing wrong with many of these proposals, and I have been part of researching and advocating for a few of them, but they become panacea economics when they are held up as simple and singular answers to fundamental structural issues.

Against this background, I was pleased to find that Raworth’s Doughnut Economics was of a different order. While some of her historical analysis and her call to reimagine economics as a doughnut (rather than a linear progression) have hallmarks of panacea writing, she is clear that her work is not a singular answer but only an entry point to a new (and still-to-be-developed) economic thinking. However, I still found the book hugely frustrating and hopelessly utopian – for reasons I will explain that later.

The doughnut

The economic doughnut is a “safe and just space for humanity” in between a social foundation level below which people’s basics needs are not met, and an ecological ceiling above which the economy is damaging the planet. As a concept, it is similar to the Goldilocks zone in astronomy where planets that could sustain life need to be within a given range of distances from their star (not too hot, not too cold).

The basic diagram of the economy as a doughnut, with the inner edge – the social foundation – defined by 12 basics, including food, water and sanitation, energy, healthcare, housing, education, a minimum income, and support networks, as well as social and political equality, peace and justice. On the outer edge, the ecological limits are defined by 9 ecological crises including climate change, biodiversity loss, land and water degradation and various pollutions.

The metaphor of the doughnut is useful, and made more powerful by Raworth’s explanation of the role of simple diagrams in capturing mainstream economics and selling a particular way of thinking. The basic supply and demand graph, the circular flow diagrams of the economy, and the economic development curves which legitimate increasing equality, all shape our understanding of the economy. They also limit other ways of thinking. Hence the need to draw a different diagram of how the economy works in the real world.

But the doughnut is more than just a summary image to define the terrain and task of economics. The doughnut is populated by very specific and real issues. As per the diagram above, the inner edge – the social foundation – is defined by 12 basics needs, and the outer edge, is defined by 9 specific series of ecological limitations.

These components are all measurable and can be plotted on the doughnut to see which areas are in shortfall and where we are exceeding our ecological limits. In the following diagram, the dark wedges below the social foundation show the proportion of people worldwide falling short of those particular basic needs, while the dark wedges beyond the ecological ceiling show where we are overshooting the planetary boundaries. (The appendix of the book has the actual data).

The doughnut diagram showing which areas are in shortfall (all, in different proportions) or exceeding ecological limits (climate, biodiversity loss, land conservtaion, and nitrogen and phosphorous loading).

As an image of our economy, this doughnut is more useful and nuanced than the traditional graph of every-growing Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but of itself it tells us very little about how to get to that safe place or the dynamics within that space. And it is in that explanation that the doughnut starts going stale.

Critique

Having set out the context and the challenge of this new economic thinking, much of the book is then about the barriers and pathways to get to the sweet-spot of what she calls the regenerative and distributive economy.

The distributive economy has distribution and fairness as central to its structure, rather than as a social afterthought once the economy has happened. It requires s shift from a faith that growth will eventually lead to greater equality to more purposeful actions to address inequality.

The regenerative economy requires a similar shift from a linear economy (natural resources -> production -> use -> waste) to a circular economy designed not just to reuse resources, but also to regenerate natural processes.

It is hard to argue with the vision or the social and ecological imperatives at play, but the whole discussion proceeds as if the economy is designed by rational thought operationalising particular theories. In contrast to the work of Erik Olin Wright that I have examined previously, in Doughnut Economics there is no sense of economic relations as being conflictual processes for control and use of resources, or of class or institutional formation around those interests. There is no theory of state power, and vested interests are limited to a few paragraphs on corporate backlash – presumably within a set of political rules and structures which are already set (in the sense that they are never questioned).

Thus, the barriers to change seem to be always about old and inappropriate ways of economic thinking – with the main culprits being the false assumptions and narrowness of economic theory, the blindness to the ecological and social base, and the addiction to growth. This is a familiar litany, but it is frustrating and at times misleading. For instance, most economics I have read understands that GDP measures production and is not a welfare measure. The goal of GDP growth is ubiquitous, but not for deep-seated psychological reasons or because of theoretical blindness. It is a goal because economic theory posits a relationship between production (GDP), employment and the quantity of money (and therefore inflation), and if GDP decreases there will be substantial unemployment and the deprivation of basic needs. This problem rates just two pages of discussion and is “solved” by a few tweaks to the tax system, shorter working weeks, and a hope of “innovative experiments”.

These innovative experiments are in fact key to Raworth’s path forward: the envisaged “economic evolution” is seen to happen one experiment at a time. Accordingly, much of the argument is a reprise of particular initiatives which address one or more of requirements of the new economy. When reading such lists, it is always hard to know the context of the initiatives, whether their claims are true and most importantly, whether they are quirky one-offs or replicable and scalable models for change.

The example closest to home is the Sundrop farm near Port Augusta which uses seawater and solar power to grow greenhouse tomatoes. While this is industrial-scale farming producing around 17,000 tonnes of tomatoes per year, the discussion begs the question – if this is an exemplar of a new approach, why is it singular? Why hasn’t the rest of the industry changed? The proposition that this is just because other producers are stuck in old ways of thinking appears shallow given the way that other innovations tend to spread across markets.

To be fair, Raworth acknowledges that state support will be needed to support the transition of these experiments into new economic practice, and much of her own activism has been towards informing government policy and frameworks. But there is little consideration of how or why the state would do this (whose interests it acts in), how it would get the money or regulatory power to intervene, or how it would overcome the opposition from the losers from such interventions. Presumably, a well-informed electorate simply votes such policies into existence.

It is in this sense that I mean the book is utopian – not a fiction, but (as the title of this post hints[1]), utopian in the Marxist sense. It lacks a macro-theory and program that could mobilise the power to force historic change. Changes in economic metaphors and individual case studies simply do not add up to the structural and material changes needed to create a new economy. I desperately wanted a broader political economic analysis.

That said, I also think the socialist movements that followed Marx were impoverished by their myopic focus on state power and their failure to incorporate “utopian” projects into a program of change.

Accordingly, I hope that it is possible to utilise Raworth’s doughnut economics framework in a more radical political economy.


[1]              The title is a play on Engels’ Socialism: Utopian and Scientific, where he distinguishes the “science” of Marxism grounded in material conditions from the previous religious and reformist socialisms based on paternalistic projects and rural and worker cooperatives. The science claims were always dubious, but distinction of materialist and idealist politics is useful.